Prediction

Prediction competition
for a full-scale field test on an embankment
focussing on slope stability as part of the IJkdijk field test series

The IJkdijk (Dutch for ‘calibration dike’) has emerged as a joint initiative from the sensor & information technology sector and the geotechnical society, by TNO, NOM, IDL, STOWA and GeoDelft. It comprises of a significant number of field tests on full scale trial embankments, aiming at various failure mechanisms, to improve the knowledge of these mechanisms and to prove the effectiveness of new sensor technologies under real field conditions.

The first large-scale test will aim at slope stability. It will be carried out on an embankment of approx. 5 metres high and 100 metres long. For this test, the international geotechnical society is challenged to predict when failure will occur.

IMPORTANT NOTICE: The prediction competition for the stability embankment of the IJkdijk has been postponed to a later date. The main reason for this is related to the uncertainties regarding the subsoil. To reduce these uncertainties, we have performed a field test with a row of containers filled with water. The containers have tumbled down, indicating how we should revise the design of the test. Once this has been completed, all relevant information required for the prediction will be posted on this website. That will be in March or April. The new deadline will be sometime between June and August. Our apologies for this inconvenience! For any inquiries you may contact André Koelewijn: andre.koelewijn@deltares.nl

First embankment at the IJkdijk location in the North-East of the Netherlands, to be tested by wave overtopping simulation on November 2nd, 2007.

Recent picture of the site of the stability test embankment, to be built between the temporary road on the left and the canal embankment on the right, where the people are standing and extending from the left to the right of this picture.

Time schedule
September/October 2007:  Announcements and preparations

November 2007: Construction of trial embankment

December 5th, 2007: Final documentation on design and construction of embankment (including early pore pressure measurements) and instructions for submission of predictions available from website

December 2007 / January 2008: Period for making predictions

January 31st, 2008:  Deadline for submission of predictions

Mid-February – mid-March 2008: Execution of field test

Rewards: the honour!
Besides, € 1000,- is awarded to the prediction which is most close to the moment of failure. Furthermore, a second prize of € 500,- and a third prize of € 250,- are awarded.

The results of the field test will be reported on a suitable occasion in the course of 2008. Then also the names of the winners will be published, as well as in further publications on this competition.